Estimation of the Russia’s trade policy options with the help of the Computable General Equilibrium Model

The computable general equilibrium model was used in assessing different Russia’s trade policy options. The base experiment lying in the core of our investigation is simulation of the EU eastward enlargement. According to our calculations Russia does not loose in the resulting equilibrium. This is not a zero-sum process from a point of view of Russia’s social welfare. The other experiments are: simulation of Russia’s WTO accession and creation of the Common European Economic Space. Change in the tariffs associated with the possible WTO accession is so small relative to the existing level of tariffs, that it does not give a significant change in the Russian economic environment. Significant changes are associated with the creation of the CEES as a free trade area between Russia and the enlarged Europe. If an FTA agreement will cover all goods and services, this will give a negative effect on the Russian economy.CGE models, enlargement of the European Union, Russia’s WTO accession, Free Trade Area

The SUSTRUS model: a CGE model on regional level for sustainability policies in Russia

The present paper describes the construction and first empirical application of the SUSTRUS model (the name of the model refers to “Sustainable Russiaâ€). This model will be the main result of the same-named EU funded project. The SUSTRUS model belongs to the group of regional CGE models, applied to analyze policies with a strong social, economic and environmental dimension. The SUSTRUS model can be used to assist policy makers in their choice of medium and long-term sustainability policies, for the implementation of the EU strategy for sustainable development in Russia as well as an efficient incorporation of the sustainability goals into the existing Russian policy tools on regional and federal levels. The SUSRUS model is constructed as a regional model on federal level, where regions are linked by interregional trade flows, a federal government level and migration. This paper will relate on the calibration of the database for the model and the addition of innovative elements in the model, necessary to model the link between the environmental, social, economic and international modules. The main data sources for the model are the public databases of Rosstat and the micro-level household data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). Calibration of the model database was performed by a flexible cross-entropy minimization sub model and standard applied general equilibrium techniques. The general structure of the model will be discussed, focusing on the innovative features of the model and the link between the environmental and economic modules. The application of the model will be shown by a simulation exercise and a presentation of the main results.

To raise or not to raise? Impact assessment of Russia’s incremental gas price reform

The growing momentum for gas price liberalization in Russia is increasingly constrained by fears of potentially strong adverse impact that market-based price setting principle will have on the economy. Based on a novel multi-regional, multi-sector and multi-household computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Russian Federation, this paper presents a simple yet a flexible framework for evaluating gas price reform. We found that the reform is feasible at low economic cost, without greater disparities in terms of increased inequity within and between country’s federal districts. Large redistributive impacts can arise from specific mechanisms to recycle revenues. In terms of global environmental credentials, gas price liberalization can bring Russia on a substantially more sustainable path. The potential to foster adoption of energy efficiency measures by exploiting the revenue-recycling effect is, however, limited

Расчетная модель общего равновесия для оценки экономического эффекта ранней диагностики болезни Паркинсона

This paper presents a new CGE model of the Russian economy with a health block. We estimate effects of Parkinson's disease (PD) on the Russian economy and population. We distinguish two mechanisms transmitting effects of the PD: a change in the quality of life of a representative household and a decrease in labor supply due to early retirement caused by PD. Our main focus is on effects of early diagnosis of PD coupled with the use of neuroprotective therapy at the prodromal stage of PD. Calculations showed that the cumulative economic effect of PD on the Russian economy, taking into account the forecast of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years, can lead to a loss of real GDP in the amount of -0.86%, and a decrease in the utility of households over the same period in the amount of -1.11% of the consumption level of the base year. The high efficiency of early diagnosis in combination with neuroprotective therapy was shown: the cumulative effect, taking into account the prognosis of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years of using this method, can give a gain of about 0.68% of the base year GDP, which is accompanied by an increase in the welfare of a representative consumer in the amount of 0.88 % of the baseline consumption. We show that the prevailing channel of influence of PD on macroeconomic parameters is the effect of a reduction in the supply of labor due to an increase in the disability of patients with PD

Расчетная модель общего равновесия для оценки экономического эффекта ранней диагностики болезни Паркинсона

This paper presents a new CGE model of the Russian economy with a health block. We estimate effects of Parkinson's disease (PD) on the Russian economy and population. We distinguish two mechanisms transmitting effects of the PD: a change in the quality of life of a representative household and a decrease in labor supply due to early retirement caused by PD. Our main focus is on effects of early diagnosis of PD coupled with the use of neuroprotective therapy at the prodromal stage of PD. Calculations showed that the cumulative economic effect of PD on the Russian economy, taking into account the forecast of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years, can lead to a loss of real GDP in the amount of -0.86%, and a decrease in the utility of households over the same period in the amount of -1.11% of the consumption level of the base year. The high efficiency of early diagnosis in combination with neuroprotective therapy was shown: the cumulative effect, taking into account the prognosis of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years of using this method, can give a gain of about 0.68% of the base year GDP, which is accompanied by an increase in the welfare of a representative consumer in the amount of 0.88 % of the baseline consumption. We show that the prevailing channel of influence of PD on macroeconomic parameters is the effect of a reduction in the supply of labor due to an increase in the disability of patients with PD

Оценка эффективности доклинической диагностики болезни Паркинсона методом "затраты-полезность"

Neurodegenerative diseases, Parkinson disease being an example, set challenges to modern societies both in terms of premature deaths and resources spent on treatment of the diseases. Prevention and early diagnostics in particular, are potential directions towards higher economic efficiency of healthcare interventions in this area. We suggest a way to modify the cost-utility approach to evaluation of economic efficiency of an early diagnostics method of Parkinson disease (PD) at the laboratory stage of the diagnostics method. The lack of detailed understanding of the early testing group selection and composition are the major challenges to economic evaluation here. In particular, we consider the approach to diagnose PD at the prodromal stage suggested by Ugrumov 2020. The early diagnostics at the prodromal stage, accompanied by neuroprotective therapy of those identified at high risk of PD, allows postponing PD development for later years. The innovative approach implies saving both direct and indirect costs of PD treatment in comparison with traditional approach but adds costs of testing for the high risk of PD. The latter component may be non-trivial depending on the rules of selection into the group of tested. We suggest a way to modify the cost-utility evaluation procedure so that to take this uncertainty into account. We formulate the economic efficiency condition of the early diagnostics method in terms of the minimal probability of PD in the tested group and estimate the probability based on the Russian data. The latter sets the important threshold for innovative technology when moving from the laboratory into the clinical stage

Экономическая эффективность доклинической диагностики болезни Паркинсона: марковская модель

This article contains a pharmacoeconomic analysis of early (preclinical) diagnosis of Parkinson's disease in Russia. Previous works show that using a combination of socio-economic determinants and a panel of blood biomarkers one may distinguish a Parkinsonism-related “risk group” among the entire population. This group consists of people who are most vulnerable to parkinsonism or are already ill, but at the preclinical stage. Together with the approach traditionally used in the pharmacoeconomics of chronic and long-term diseases, based on the representation of the dynamics of the development of the disease using Markov chains - discrete random processes without memory - this makes it possible to analyze the economic effects of early detection of cases and conducting preventive preclinical therapy. The work investigates the Markov model of Parkinson's disease, consisting of nine states - five states corresponding to the stages HY1-HY5, two preclinical states ("risk group", "prodromal state"). We use as the initial data for the model the probability of transition between states and health-adjusted quality of life (HRQoL) estimates, published in a number of works of researchers affiliated with AbbVie Corporation, and calculate the cost of therapy based on open data on the cost of drugs and procedures in Russian market. Moreover, we show that due to the introduction of preclinical diagnostics and preventive treatment at preclinical stages, identified patients can significantly increase the average survival time (in quality-adjusted life-years) compared to standard therapy, and the average cost per patient until the end of life can be significantly reduced

Russia and the World Energy Markets: Long-term Scenarios

The paper focuses on energy markets in Russia. First, we look at the recent developments in the world energy markets and in Russian natural gas, oil, and electricity sectors. Then we consider different scenarios for a potential development of energy markets, both in Russia and in Russian trading partners. Using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which is a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we consider different energy scenarios for the next 20-40 years. Our projections show energy use in Russia growing from 775 mtoe in 2005 to 1200 mtoe in 2050 in primary energy equivalence, while electricity use nearly doubles from about 1000 TWh in 2005 to 1900 TWh in 2050 in our reference projections. The energy system continues to rely heavily on traditional fossil energy. Our long-run reference projection for oil price is a continuous increase from $55/barrel in 2010 to$155/barrel in 2050 and for natural gas from $220/tcm in 2010 to$380/tcm in 2050. The model is not able to capture the volatility in energy prices that is commonly observed. The price projections should be seen as a long run trend around which there will likely continue to be volatility driven by short term events. Achieving the G8 goal of 50% greenhouse gas emissions reduction significantly changes our projections, reducing Russia’s fossil fuel production and domestic fuel and electricity use from the projected levels without such a policy